Deputy Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Gary Samore, says he the does not think that anyone in the U.S. or elsewhere understands the complexities of Iranian politics. The U.S. was focusing on specific issues to put pressure on Iran "without really knowing the effect" on the country's domestic politics, said Samore, who previously served as a special assistant to former U.S. president Bill Clinton, IRNA reported.
| He may have a point. I read IRNA almost every day, and I chase down articles on Iran. I'm still confused. That's common with closed societies, though. Getting info on Iraq under Sammy was worse. Getting info on Syria's internal politix is worse... |
The deputy director was among a panel of experts answering questions at the launch of the IISS's latest strategic survey for 2002/3, which suggested the duration of the U.S. presence in Iraq and the nature of the New Iraqi regime could influence reforms in Iran. He said there was a "fascinating game" going on at the moment between the U.S. and Iran with regard to Iraq, where there was both shared and conflicting interests. While the U.S. was "constraining the ability" of the Iraq-based Mojahedin e-Khalq terrorist group, it was also "reserving the option" of using it as a proxy force against Iran, Samore said.
| I think that's a mistaken assessment... |
At the same time, he suggested that Tehran was "not supporting military action" by Iraqi opposition living in exile in Iran, but also "preserving" other measures if needed.
| He's talking about thugs like the Badr Brigades. Iran's afraid that if they're "unleashed" then the U.S. will "unleash" the MKO. I think we intend to dismantle the MKO, and that if the Badr hard boyz concentrate into one place we'll blow them away. If not, and they activate, we'll have to hunt them down and kill them like dogs. If we don't, we'll lose Iraq... |
Samore also dismissed out of hand any claims of nuclear cooperation with North Korea, saying that he was "not aware of Iranian links."
| That's comforting, isn't it? Luckily, no state would consider making a secret of such links, so the statement's easily verified... |
IISS Director John Chipman criticized the sense that U.S. security policy was made without any regard for foreign opinion, saying that the unwillingness of senior members of the Bush administration to travel "weakens the U.S. ability to garner foreign support." The U.S., he proposed, "could spend more time selling its policies abroad, rather than doing so from home."
| All depends on what support we think we need. Certainly Powell's racking up frequent flyer miles, and Rice, Armitage, Wolfowitz and even Rumsfeld have spent a lot of time with their phrase books lately. Should be just move the capital to Geneva, so we're close to all the people we're supposed to woo? |
Chipman was not very optimistic about the chances that the recently published 'roadmap' for a Palestinian state would be implemented. He said that only truly intense U.S. diplomacy would bring about the Bush vision by his 2005 deadline, but warned "With the U.S. electoral season beginning in earnest by the late autumn, the window for that diplomacy is narrow."
| It's my uninformed opinion that the Roadmap is going to flop because the Paleostinians will agree to its provisions, make minimal efforts to implement them, and then Hamas and Jihad will dispatch swarms of boomers to kill as many people as possible, thereby causing the whole idea to evaporate in the face of a new occupation. Next occupation they might throw Yasser and most of his cronies out and start all over with a fresh set of faces — but I doubt it, because if that happened the entire EU would be six inches deep in pee... |
On the most dominant event, the Iraq war, the director of the London-based think-tank described the intramural diplomacy of the Western powers as being "impressively divisive," leaving a number of institutions, including the UN and EU as "badly wounded."
| He means "teetering on the brink of irrelevancy." If Bush decides he doesn't need the UN anymore, all he has to do is sneeze in its direction. But he's got to do it soon, or it'll start regenerating, like a starfish grows a new body from a leg... |
"In order to facilitate a transatlantic strategic reconciliation, some leading Europeans will need to abandon their multipolar illusions," he said. He suggested that a better option would be what he called 'managed unipolarity' that would allow the retention of marginal influence over the U.S. domination.
| How about "either get on board or get out of the way." If you take the Bad Guys' side against us, we'll try our best to slap you. |
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