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Iraq
Robert Fisk Finds Naughty Bits
2003-03-30
Fred, I know you'll feel free to delete this if it's inappropriate. Anti-American writer Robert Fisk was given some alleged bits of a missile that hit a market the other day, killing 62 civilians at last report.
It reads: 30003-704ASB 7492. The letter "B" is scratched and could be an "H". This is believed to be the serial number. It is followed by a further code which arms manufacturers usually refer to as the weapon's "Lot" number. It reads: MFR 96214 09.
A couple of Tim Blair's readers have weighed in with information which supports the idea that it was a US/UK missile. They think it's a launcher for HARM missiles. Do knowledgeable Rantburg readers have anything to add? My question is whether the missile launcher leaves with the missile, or stays with the plane.
This is the second market in a Shia neighborhood which has been hit in the past couple days, which seems awful suspicious to me. Especially seeing as how Saddam has "replaced" the guy in charge of air defense, as was reported here yesterday.
Posted by:Angie Schultz

#8  If we're lucky, the next piece of shrapnel Fiskie grabs, is the one he'll be pulling out of his ass...
Posted by: tu3031   2003-03-30 21:50:59  

#7  HARM missiles are rail launched - the launcher (LAU-118 or ALIC - Aircraft Launcher Interface Computer) is a very expensive piece of equipment loaded with 'top secret' threat and targeting data - no way it would ever leave the aircraft except in case of emergency, when all racks and stores are ejected.......
Posted by: Steve   2003-03-30 21:07:43  

#6  UPDATE: Tim Blair now has more on his site.
Posted by: Angie Schultz   2003-03-30 20:55:31  

#5  2 big civilian hits - both in marketplaces, both in shiite areas.

Shiite area seems possible - they're about half the population of bagdad, so about a one in four chance that 2 successive hits are there.
But 2 in a row in marketplaces??? what percentage of land area in residential areas is marketplaces, as opposed to private homes???

Now think about it this away - suppose it was a planted bomb, not a missile?? Then you need to do it in a marketplace, since discreet access to private homes is rather difficult. Placement in Shiite areas is of course consistent.

Why fire the air defense minister - I dont know, so far its not confirmed by Iraq IIUC. Maybe its for some other reason (like not hitting any coalition aircraft) or maybe they know we have proof it wasnt a coalition missile, and they want to hide that it was a deliberate bombing.
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2003-03-30 19:38:16  

#4  Uh oh......Robert "25 rolls" Fisk is on the case....
Posted by: Former Russian Major   2003-03-30 16:24:56  

#3  After reading Blair's post (with updates), I'm willing to agree that the fragments Fisk saw did come from a HARM system. Note to Angie: The reader Tim cites wasn't able to find numbers for the missle itself, or numbers exactly matching the ones Fisk gives. The reader says
"...it seems to me to make sense that a HARM missile may well have a serial number very close to that of its launcher. [Which is the number he found.] I can't find any other serial numbers which are even remotely close to Fisk's."
So okay, if we accept that what Fisk saw was part of a HARM, then the possibilities are:
  • It was a HARM which struck the marketplace, by accident or by design. (Fisk) Accident seems possible to me, design not likely-- it's a single-purpose radar-seeking missle. If we were targeting the marketplace, we would have used something else, unless...
  • It was a HARM, which was targeted at something in/near the marketplace. (Another of Tim's readers postulates a mobile radar system, which was driven away before Fisk got there, possibly even before the missle struck.)
  • Something else (like a faulty AA round) blew up in the market place, the Iraquis handed Fisk some HARM fragments they'd scavenged from earlier strikes elsewhere, and he's being a useful idiot. (TGA's theory.)
    • Tim's first reader says:
    "[t]he blast... [appeared to have] had quite a small kinetic force, not much heat, but a hell of a lot of shrapnel... As it turns out, these are the precise characteristics of a HARM - a small warhead with lots of embedded shrapnel, designed to tear a surface radar to shreds... I can't think of another missile in the US inventory which would so closely match the apparent blast characteristics.
    But "lots of shrapnel" would be a good characteristic for an AA missle, too. Seems to me Fisk's report increases the possibility that what blew up was an allied munition, but doesn't provide a definitive answer.
    Posted by: Old Grouch   2003-03-30 16:17:43  

    #2  Obviously it must be rather easy to carry some missile pieces found in Saddam's bedroom to a Shiite market, right?
    Notice how it's always a Shiite market. The Shiites are the first feared to rise against Saddam.
    Posted by: True German Ally   2003-03-30 14:17:54  

    #1  Hey Bobby, you see a watermark there, too? Kinda hold it up so the light reflects in a certain way, and you should see the masonic pyramid bleeding from its single eyeball.

    There are only forty or fifty ways to fake something like this, and it's not as though there is a shortage of American missile fragments in the greater Baghdad area. One hundred years from now, the (free, healthy, happy) schoolchildren of Iraq will take fieldtrips to dig these things up like arrowheads.
    Posted by: (lowercase) matt   2003-03-30 13:52:23  

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