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Iraq
"Elite" guards prepare to defend Baghdad
2003-03-08
Rooters uses quote marks all the time, why can't I?
The republican guard, President Saddam Hussein's brutal shock elite forces, are concentrated around the outskirts of Baghdad in preparation for a siege, according to western military analysts. They predict that, contrary to optimistic assumptions made by the US administration about a speedy collapse of the Iraqi army, at least some of them will put up a fight and are gearing up to engage US forces in the streets of Baghdad.
Last time it was the Fourth-Largest Army in the World™. We'd never seen anything like it, and they were gonna kick our collective tail...
For several weeks, Saddam Hussein has been appearing on television almost nightly with his commanders or other military men, trying to bolster morale, telling them that the US technological advantage can be partially neutralised by drawing the Americans into street-fighting. He said the US had aircraft carriers but asked: "Does this aircraft carrier have wheels that enable it to come to Baghdad? The decisive factor in battle will be a soldier marching on his feet and tanks and mobile or fixed artillery."
We got those too.
The republican thugs guard, which is better paid and better equipped than regular troops, has three armoured divisions, one mechanised and two infantry round Baghdad. Amatzia Baram, one of the world's experts on the Iraqi army and a professor at Haifa University in Israel, said yesterday: "Right now, most of them are between 15 and 20 miles from Baghdad.
All the better for us to deal with 'em.
"When the US moves in, they will withdraw to Baghdad. They will fight them at the border of Baghdad. These tanks will be fighting behind street corners that will be problematic for the US."
An Iraqi tank fighting behind a street corner is known as a "target".
He added: "Saddam will want the US drawn in. There will be civilian casualties and the BBC and CNN can see it and public opinion in the world will be outraged. The republican guard is no match for the US but will be a problem."
Some public opinion will be outraged, but they're outraged already. Screw 'em.
Iraq has acquired little new military equipment since the Gulf war in 1991 and has had to make and mend from existing supplies.
That won't make it more effective. And they weren't real good on maintenance even when they had parts and supplies. Maintenance is boring, not fun, like shooting off your gun into the air and making faces...
The special republican guard will also be in Baghdad: defence of Saddam the capital is the reason for their existence. The role of most of the rest of the Iraqi army is primarily to delay the US-led advance for a day or two. The regular army, which is massed on the southern border, tends to be demoralised and many will seek to surrender as soon as possible. The US will almost certainly destroy the Iraqi command and control centre in the first 48 hours. The Iraqis have ordered their regular army units to fight on independently in the hope that pockets of resistance can delay the US-led forces. The hundreds of thousands of prisoners will also present the US with a problem and could contribute to delay.
The Gulf states forces should help in this regard.
A British-based analyst said that while he expected Basra, the main southern city, to fall quickly, he noted that it had never fallen in spite of repeated Iranian attacks during the 1980-88 war. He suggested that President Saddam also might try to flood the marshlands again to make tank movement difficult.
Unlike the Iranians, we're not going to send 14 year old boys in mass wave suicide attacks. So just maybe, possibly, Mr. Reporter, this is a bad analogy, ya think?
Although the Iraqi leader promised in an interview that he would not fire the Iraqi oilfields, he could still do this and blame the Americans. He could, according to one of the analysts, evacuate places like Basra and leave behind germ material. Some of the preparations for delaying the US-led advance can already be seen from the border of Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. At Dollabakir, the last Kurdish checkpoint before entry into Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Kurdish commander Saeed Hassan pointed out where the Iraqi army had been digging trenches. "They have come up with a new plan," he said, gesturing towards the Iraqi frontline 500 yards away. "The trenches are full of crude oil. They intend to set them on fire to confuse US troops."
To use them as smokescreens...
The Kurdish guerrillas also watched as Iraqi soldiers buried hundreds of Italian-made mines in the mud. The five-pronged Valmara mines are connected together by a thin wire. They are lethal, killing people up to 50 metres away. On either side of the smooth road that runs to Kirkuk, the northern oil capital and along which US forces are expected to advance south, TNT has been dumped, ready to detonate should American tanks roll past.
Italian? Where'd Sammy get those?
Cmdr Hassan said yesterday: "The Iraqi soldiers are terrified. We don't expect anybody to fight except for members of the Ba'ath party."
And them not very well. Having a soldier suit and a gun isn't the same thing as being a soldier...
The growing military tension over the past few weeks has led to fresh skirmishing, with Iraqi troops encamped in the opposite village of Kaybashi bombarding Kurdish positions with mortars. The Kurdish guerrillas have responded with heavy fire from an antique Russian-made Dushka machine gun.
See what I mean?
The first two obvious targets of a US-led attack from the north would be Kirkuk and Mosul, both of which could fall relatively easily. More difficult will be the next town on the way to Baghdad, Tikrit, President Saddam's birthplace and home of much of the ruling elite.
The Bavarian Redoubt.
In the last fortnight observers have seen Iraqi forces pulling back from the border and regrouping round Tikrit. The British analyst said one option for US forces would be to bypass Tikrit and continue on to Baghdad, leaving Saddam's heartland to be mopped up later.
We parade Sammy's head on a stick, and Tikrit will fall quickly and quietly.
It's only worth wasting time and effort on if it has some strategic value...
Posted by:Steve White

#5  Ha, he actually believes that our aircraft carriers don't have wheels.
Posted by: Vea Victis   2003-03-08 15:10:21  

#4  Actually there is nothing in Tikrit to cause the US to want to go there. Baghdad is the nerve center of the country. That is provided that SH hasn't put his stock of CBW in Tikrit's neighborhood and seizing that might be critical.
Posted by: Tom Roberts   2003-03-08 07:53:24  

#3  "evacuate places like Basra and leave behind germ material."
Or not evacuate,release the germs,thousands of civilians die.And it's the U.S.'s fault for attacking.

Posted by: raptor   2003-03-08 06:07:14  

#2  I am sure the US air commander is heartened to know he will have all his targets in a nice concentrated place. It wouldnt'nt do to make his air recon staff work overtime to find the IRGs. Sure makes the jobs of his pilots a lot easier, too.
Posted by: badanov   2003-03-08 05:35:43  

#1  Actually Vea Victis, you're possibly thinking of the "De Gaulle", which had wheels and euro-gauge railroad carriages installed inasmuch as it's had so much trouble with salt water and such (corrosion issues, don'tcha know...). Those clever French - always thinking ahead...that's why they're so superior
Posted by: Frank G   2003-03-08 17:58:09  

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