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| Caucasus |
| Russia threatens to invade Georgia over Chechen freedom fighters |
| 2002-09-14 |
| The already tense relations between Russia and Georgia reached an unprecedented level of distrust and confrontation in recent days with a new Russian threat to launch unilateral, preemptive strikes against Chechen militants in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge. I wonder if this is Bush's tradeoff for Russian support against Iraq? If so, it's a good deal, because it'll benefit us as much as it will them, if only for the dent it will put in the international terror machine. The more points where the Bad Guys have to defend themselves simultaneously, the more likely that one of those points is going to cave... Generally validating Russian complaints over Georgia's inability to secure the area, observers have noted the overall ineffectiveness of the operation, citing in particular the focus on arresting criminal, rather than terrorist, groups. Additional criticism of the operation centers on the Georgian reluctance to deploy into the mountainous areas beyond the gorge's main roads and central villages and on the advance warning of the operation issued by the government, thereby eliminating any element of surprise. Despite the well-known presence of notorious criminal groups, kidnappers, and narcotics traffickers, Georgian security forces have arrested a mere 10 criminal suspects and one ethnic Arab French citizen initially suspected of links to terrorist organizations, but who subsequently proved to be an employee of a humanitarian agency. This sort of stuff has probably convinced the Bush team that the Georgians are unable or unwilling to actually do the tough stuff, despite our investment in training. The Russers acquiesced in the training too quickly — so there was probably an understanding that if the Georgians didn't produce, we weren't going to holler if the Russians had to do it themselves. FOLLOWUP: Bush is on FoxNews now, with Berlusconi. The first press question concerned Georgia. He said, not very convincingly, that the Russers should allow the Georgians a little more time. Next question he reiterated that Sammy's been giving the UN the back of his hand for eleven years and we can't wait any longer. The UN can be a peacekeeping body, or it can be irrelevant. I think that fix is in and the Russers can roll up Pankisi anytime — and Georgia if they want it. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #2 As you sow, so shall ye reap. As you harbor, so shall ye be invaded. |
| Posted by: Allah the Dog Faced God 2002-09-15 00:34:21 |
| #1 Shevranadze's best shot is to skdaddle up to the Kremlin to try to make some sort of "alliance" with Moscow on this situation. I'm not sure if Putin will keep him cooling his heels or if he'll offer military "aid" of a type that makes Georgia a Russian protectorate. But if the Georgian army isn't up to getting off the main roads and controlling the countryside, I'm not sure what is there to stop Moscow from making offers that Tblisi cannot reject. |
| Posted by: Tom Roberts 2002-09-14 16:02:52 |