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| Afghanistan |
| Jihad: A New Beginning... Or the same old story... Whatever. |
| 2002-09-12 |
| While there is some truth in reports that al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the radical Muslim group Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) have formed an alliance in Afghanistan, the motivating force and dominant player in the country is the HIA, led by former Afghan premier and famed mujahideen warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. They're talking about the Secret Army of Doom. This would seem to be the publicity phase of the campaign... Driven by the burning desire to Ummm... Many of us would differ with that statement. Masood's force was the driver, while Hek spent his time playing politix and stabbing people in the back. The Pashtun part of the Muj wasn't particularly effective. The Talibs kicked him out of the country when they took power, and they refused to let him back in... In the new political arrangement, a loose union has been established in which the Taliban's religious clerics will stay on the back benches, leaving the mujahideen commanders to orchestrate events - which they are doing from such centers as Peshawar in Pakistan, Berlin and Tehran. At the core of their agenda is securing international backing for a "freedom struggle against foreign troops", rather than the pursuit of an al-Qaeda program. In the new situation, the Taliban will play a junior role to the HIA, which will be mastermined by Hekmatyar and another former mujahideen and once minister in the Taliban government, Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani. Haqqani's the guy who was in overall command at Shah-i-Kot. This amounts to an admission that the Talibs and al-Qaeda are dead as a political force in Afghanland... Just months ago, when Hekmatyar left Iran, where he had been in exile during the Taliban years, many Afghan analysts claimed that the moment he set foot in his home country he would be a dead man. His bombardment of the capital in 1994, after he fell out with the mujahideen administration that ran the country from 1992 to 1996, is said to have resulted in the deaths of more than 25,000 civilians. But his support among the rank and file and veteran commanders of the anti-Soviet jihad remains strong, and widely underestimated. Yeah, you'd think that would be a recommendation against him. I hope the intel guys aren't underestimating his influence among the Pashtuns, and I'd have a hard time believing the U.S. commanders would repose much trust — if any — in any Pashtun pol... Sources in the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan maintain that it has restructured its command and control systems across Afghanistan, with key commanders in Ghazni, Hekmatyar's home town, Gardez, Logar, Kunar and Kandahar being given specific tasks for action against foreign troops. Further, the local administration in eastern Afghanistan, including the police and the Afghan army, is completely at the mercy of these HIA commanders. Even the powerful commander of Jalalabad, Malik Hazrat Ali, who is a confidant of Afghan Defense Minister General Qasim Fahim, has given assurances to local HIA commanders that he will remain neutral in the next offensive, which is likely to be launched in Jalalabad and the southern Kabul region. The HIA is also in the process of making contact with commanders in northern Afghanistan, where new "activities" can be expected to start soon. Just the sort of thing we'd expect. If the Hezbies don't do too well, though, Hazrat Ali will turn on them and chew them up, though not to the point of annihilation... The new fight being led by the HIA will be named a freedom struggle against the occupation of foreign troops and tyranny against Pashtuns, and it is expected to gather widespread support among different Afghan factions, irrespective of their political affiliations. An important strategy will be to fan the flames of Pashtun dissatisfaction with the Tajik ascendancy in the Kabul government. It's going to be a Pashtun-based rebellion, with a few useful idiots from among the Tadjiks and Uzbeks, probably no Hazaras... Hekmatyar has also begun a campaign to win hearts and minds with a taped speech released all over eastern Afghanistan in which he queries why it is that only Pashtuns are the targets of US bombing, and not Tajiks and Uzbeks. He says that ordinary Afghan people have been humiliated by US and other soldiers entering their houses and taking away their personal weapons - and even searching their women. Maybe it's because all the support for the al-Qaeda and the Talibs is to be found among the Pashtuns? Maybe the Tadjiks and Uzbeks are tired of that nonsense? The tape is backed up by other literature that is being spread across the country, much of it originating from Iran and being given a safe passage into Afghanistan by the Governor of Herat, Ismail Khan, another famous anti-Soviet mujahideen, even though he is Tajik. Most of Hek's money probably originates in Iran, as well. When the Paks dumped him in favor of the Talibs he simply found a new sponsor. Despite the religious differences, the ayatollahs are supporting jihad in general, operating on the assumption that once the khalifate's been established they can fight it out among themselves. Ismail Khan probably doesn't give a clam about it, figuring it's a purely internal Pashtun thing; he probably has Hek's private assurance that he'll be left alone in his Dukedom of Herat, for what that assurance is worth. (Probably not as much as the hostages he's probably got from Hek's family)... Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, will continue its operations with the help of the underworld, both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But the mainstream business in Afghanistan is now firmly in the hands of the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan, not for an international agenda, but to fight for the evacuation of foreign soldiers. Ow. I just dislocated my shoulder patting myself on the back. The weak point in Hek's position is that he's running a purely Pashtun rebellion. There's no incentive for the other tribes to support him, and quite a few incentives not to. There's also the fact that the Talibs kicked him out without much effort and treated him with contempt while he was sucking up to the ayatollahs. That's what Karzai should be pushing as counterpropaganda. But I haven't seen the Kabul regime hanging the recent festivities on the Secret Army of Doom and Hekmatyar. They're still blowing the Taliban-Al Qaeda tune. I hope that's because they're doing things behind the scenes, but it could also be because Sinister Forces™ within the government are cautioning against a fight with Hek... |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #1 So Hek wants the evacuation of foreign soldiers from Afghanistan? Does that include the Arab Foreign Legion? |
| Posted by: Allah the Dog Faced God 2002-09-12 18:05:55 |