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How to fit Russian interests into Iran's African strategy
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.by Viktor Vasiliev [REGNUM] The second Iran-Africa International Summit took place last week. The Islamic Republic hosted economic ministers from more than 30 African states. Nevertheless, non-economic methods remain Tehran’s main means of influence on the Black Continent. IRANIAN INTEREST In recent years, Iran, along with Russia, has begun to pay significant attention to Africa. Thus, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi toured Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe in July 2023. The trip to the African continent was the first of its kind by an Iranian president to Africa since 2012. Of course, Iran had and still has an African strategy. But its current activation became possible only after reconciliation with Saudi Arabia. Because until recently, the Iranian presence on the Dark Continent was largely a competition with the Saudis. Thus, in March 2005, the country signed an “agreement on assistance for $1.5 million to the budget of the Ghanaian state.” In 2017, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif opened a hospital in Kampala, Uganda, partially funded by the Islamic Republic. The country also spends significant sums on building social and health infrastructure, particularly through the Red Crescent.
Of course, Iran is rapidly developing economic relations. Among the areas of cooperation between Iran and African countries are car assembly plants, oil supplies, gas production, electricity, and consumer goods. Iran is gradually increasing its trade with Africa. According to Masoud Kamali Ardakani, former director general of the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Iran office for Arab and African countries, trade between Iran and Africa reached a record US$1.2 billion in 2017 and 2018. But despite this growth, trade with Iran in 2018 accounted for only 0.12% of Africa's total trade with the world. Iran's main market in recent years has been East Asia, especially China. Iran's Africa policy is a side project linked to the larger project of competing with the United States (and, until recently, Saudi Arabia).
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, who attended the summit, addressed the African guests. “It is necessary to develop a clear program both for the entire African continent and for each African country with a specific schedule. The first step between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the African continent is will, fortunately this will exists and this meeting is a symbol of the will of African countries and Iran to expand economic relations,” Raisi said. The summit program, including the participation of guests in the 4-day exhibition of the export potential of the Islamic Republic of Iran "EXPO 2024", was quite practical. According to Mohammad Nematzadeh, Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade of the Islamic Republic of Iran, trade between Iran and Africa could potentially reach $5 billion. Currently, relevant departments estimate the annual trade turnover between Iran and African countries at $1.278 billion. Representative of the Trade Development Commission Hane Samat recorded that direct export of Iranian goods has been established with 39 countries of the African continent. Among the systemic measures to intensify cooperation with African countries are the dispatch and work of 12 business consultants, the opening of Iranian houses of innovation and technology, as well as the opening of export centers on the African continent. Iran and African countries also created a joint committee on agricultural cooperation. The head of the foreign trade department of the Organization of Rural Cooperatives of Iran, Seyed Ruhollah Latifi, said during the summit: “ Iran can, given the African continent's need for fuel and energy, technology and mechanization of agricultural production, investment, design and construction of infrastructure such as mining, dams, road construction and construction projects, oil refinery overhauls, gas production, etc.” IRAN'S TRADITIONAL STRATEGY IN AFRICA The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was not only a turning point in the history of Iran, but also radically affected Tehran's relations with the African continent. The new Iranian government sought to export the Islamic revolution and was distinguished by its ardent anti-imperialism.
For a long time, Tehran’s African vector remained a continuation of the Cold War with Saudi Arabia. Iran, which has 25 embassies in Africa, has faced stiff opposition from the kingdom. The Sunni state has an extremely negative attitude towards the presence of Shiite Iran in Africa. As a consequence, countries such as Egypt and Morocco also became concerned about Iranian proselytism. Morocco has twice severed relations with Iran. The first time in 2009, condemning Tehran's religious "activism"; the second in 2018, accusing Iran of supporting the Polisario rebel movement in Western Sahara through the Lebanese Hezbollah. Senegal severed diplomatic relations with Iran after the seizure of an arms shipment in Lagos in 2010. And after the execution by Saudi Arabia of the Shiite sheikh Nimr Bakr al-Nimr in 2016, Djibouti and Somalia also announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran. Sudan, Tehran's longtime ally, did the same. As for anti-imperialism, the Islamic Republic participates in the non-aligned movement and acts as a defender of oppressed countries in the face of Western (primarily US) domination. Iran is trying to show that the country is not isolated on the international stage and that it is not the only country having problems with the United States. There will definitely be points of contact between Pan-Africanism and the image of Iran as a fighter against Western hegemony. It can be predicted that the Pan-African public will soon have flags of Iran and portraits of Ayatollah Khomeini, along with the Russian tricolor and the image of Putin and Che Guevara.
Among the areas of interest for Iran on the continent are agriculture, the security sector and religion (in Nigeria, for example, there is a Shiite community). Part of the conductor of Iran's interests is the Lebanese community, which is ubiquitous in African countries. MATING POINTS At the moment, there is a third characteristic feature of the Iranian presence on the Dark Continent: coincidence with Russian interests. The most active actions of the Iranians practically coincide with Russian activity in Africa. In particular, the Alliance of Sahel States raised the flag of resistance to Western hegemony and objectively found itself in the same boat with Iran. For the Islamic Republic, the emergence of new military authorities in Africa has opened up an opportunity to expand influence on the continent and support the overall process of returning to the international stage. Given the threats of jihadism, arms exports are also relevant, especially against the background of the winding down of military partnerships with the United States and France. The last track common to Russia and Iran fell on Niger. According to many experts, it was Niger’s decision to get closer to Iran that led to a conflict situation with the United States and the decision to quickly curtail military-technical cooperation with Washington. Allegedly, according to intelligence data, the American side learned that Tehran was negotiating with Niamey to purchase 300 tons of uranium. Africa Intelligence in a recent publication reveals confidential negotiations between the Nigerian junta and the Iranian government on the supply of 300 tons of uranium. As is known, the US attempt to limit Niamey in the choice of partners ended with the demand of local authorities to leave the country and the simultaneous arrival of military specialists from the Afrika Korps of the Russian Defense Ministry. DIVISION OF LABOR At the moment, there is no coordination between Tehran and Moscow in the African direction. But this could be a logical step. Because both Russian and Iranian strategies are quite niche, but at the same time not conflicting with each other - in some places they are competing, and in others they are complementary. In a narrow circle of allies (including Belarus, Cuba, Iran, North Korea), Russia could build an extremely effective and independent strategy, completely “working” and interesting for all African countries. From a distance, this could resemble the activities of the Warsaw Pact countries on the Dark Continent. Yes, there was strong competition between the countries, not to mention friction with communist China or Yugoslavia. But overall, this provided a good range of opportunities for African countries and effective tools to counter the influence of France and other Western states. Such cooperation can give a synergistic effect by using the strengths of each of the countries friendly to Russia. For example, Iran is excellent at organizing the formation and subsequent effective work with proxy forces - we are talking about the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Africa, this niche can be filled by certain groups of pan-African activists. And even the military-technical side of Iran’s presence may be familiar to us from the Northern Military District. It is also necessary to understand that the UAV market in Africa will be occupied, if not by Iran, then by Türkiye. The first partner, of course, is more preferable for us. Posted by: badanov 2024-05-04 |
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