Three decades after signing Egypt treaty, Israel finds itself without Sinai, and without peace
Some 150 years after the French Revolution, Chinese leader Zhou Enlai noted that it is still too early to assess its significance. He exaggerated, of course, but was right in principle.
It is dangerous to celebrate great historical events too early.
There, some 34 years after Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula, it suddenly turns out that we made a terrible, foolish mistake. Two leaders, Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat, were awarded a Nobel Peace Prize because of this folly, and it was considered to be one of the best things that happened here since 1948.
Yet one clear day, we found ourselves without the Sinai, and without peace.
Even withdrawal objectors had trouble at the time imagining the extent of the catastrophe. They barricades themselves on a Yamit monument in order to warn us that one of these days the Egyptians will attack us from the Sinai, yet they did not consider the possibility that the Egyptian threats will be a minor issue compared to the new threat we now face from that region which we left behind in 1982.
All the madmen of the radical Islamic camp are flooding the area as of late and are starting to embitter our lives. Afghanistan is here. As opposed to previous periods, we cannot even respond, as not to find ourselves entangled in a head-on collision with the new Egypt; an Iran-style Egypt.
All we can do now is build a fence and hope for a miracle.
In fact, one miracle has already happened. Despite all the domestic and external pressures, we have not yet signed a peace treaty with Syria that is based on the Egyptian model of withdrawing to the last inch.
The impasse on establishing a Paleostinian state is also a sort of miracle. We spared ourselves Qassam rockets exploding in Tiberius, in Afula and in Herzliya. Indeed, that's the last thing we needed right now.
The Muslim Brotherhood advocates pan-Islamic unity and implementing Sharia law. Founder Hassan al-Banna wrote about the restoration of the Caliphate which will use Sharia as it's cornerstone. The deeply help hope of these people is to one day come together in a United Islamic Federation of many regional states quite similar to the United States. Israel obviously does not fit into such a structure. The Jew and his restored homeland represent a highly visible execration for these xenophobic moon worshipers. Another smackdown is emminent.
Arab-Israeli War (Nov 1947 - July 1949)
Reprisal Operations (1950's to 1960's)
Suez Crisis (Oct 1956)
Six Day War (June 1967)
War of Attrition (1967-1970)
Yom Kippur War (Oct 1973)
South Lebanon Conflict (Mar 1978)
Lebanon War (1982)
South Lebanaon conflict (1982-2000)
First Intifada (1987-1993)
Second Intifada (2000-2005)
Lebanon War (Summer 2006)
Gaza War (Dec 2008-Jan 2009)
Egypt will slide into chaos as the MB and the military fight it out.
There won't be a fight if the military is thoroughly infiltrated by MB. That's what happened in Pakistan. Look for terrorist sanctuaries to open up in what will suddenly become "the lawless south". Plausible deniability did not exist in antiquity because the traditional riposte was "hand him over or I will kill every last one of you". The Mongols were, of course, the most well-known exponents of that approach. And future academics will find really complicated explanations so as to exonerate McCain and Obama for their ignorance and unwillingness to recognize the reality that these populations hate our guts because we are the planet's head infidels, and they have been fed hatred of the infidel along with mother's milk for over a thousand years. Arab dictatorships have nothing to do with it. And democracy will merely place the resources of the state at the disposal of hundreds of millions of these murderous troglodytes.
I don't think this is correct. My understanding is that Sadat and Begin had worked out a deal. All that remained was for someone to sign the checks (billions in annual grants for Egypt, Israel and Jordan). That's where Uncle Sam came in. Carter just happened to be in office at the time. Israel's leaders are excellent tacticians, but somewhat less capable strategists. FWIW, I think some of it comes from a combo of arrogance and over-confidence that brainpower can overcome inferiority in numbers, geographical limitations and any contingencies that arise. I think they forget that there was a time when the Arabs were a numerically sparse, motley collection of tribes confined to what is now Saudi Arabia, and all the countries surrounding Israel were formerly neither ethnically nor linguistically Arabic.
Note that I'm not someone who's ever defended Carter. However, he has enough real flubs (Iran, Nicaragua, et al) in his term of office without having to cop to mistakes he wasn't responsible for.